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NBA All-WAR Team after Day #33

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
LeBron James 29 MIA 16 35.3 26.2 5.9 6.4 1.1 0.4 3.6 0.675 33.83 0.735
Paul George 23 IND 16 36.3 23.6 6.1 3.3 2.1 0.4 2.8 0.580 32.06 0.750
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 14 38.9 28.0 7.9 5.1 1.2 0.5 3.9 0.582 30.95 0.797
Chris Paul 28 LAC 16 35.0 19.0 5.0 12.2 2.4 0.1 2.9 0.574 30.11 0.682
Al Jefferson 29 CHA 8 29.0 15.8 7.9 2.3 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.490 22.88 0.284
Ty Lawson 26 DEN 15 36.1 20.9 3.9 8.3 1.2 0.1 2.7 0.561 22.59 0.751
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 15 35.1 19.6 10.6 1.7 1.7 3.9 1.4 0.559 20.52 0.731
Kevin Love 25 MIN 18 36.0 24.1 13.7 4.2 0.8 0.3 2.7 0.558 20.71 0.269

No change.

It's impressive how much the top 4 here stand out over the rest of the league.  Kevin Love would be in that group if Minnesota were winning like they were early in the season.


Dan

December 1, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #32

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
LeBron James 29 MIA 16 35.3 26.2 5.9 6.4 1.1 0.4 3.6 0.675 33.83 0.735
Paul George 23 IND 16 36.3 23.6 6.1 3.3 2.1 0.4 2.8 0.580 32.06 0.750
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 14 38.9 28.0 7.9 5.1 1.2 0.5 3.9 0.582 30.97 0.797
Chris Paul 28 LAC 16 35.0 19.0 5.0 12.2 2.4 0.1 2.9 0.574 30.13 0.682
Al Jefferson 29 CHA 8 29.0 15.8 7.9 2.3 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.490 22.85 0.284
Ty Lawson 26 DEN 15 36.1 20.9 3.9 8.3 1.2 0.1 2.7 0.561 22.62 0.751
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 15 35.1 19.6 10.6 1.7 1.7 3.9 1.4 0.559 20.48 0.731
Kevin Love 25 MIN 17 36.1 24.3 13.9 4.3 0.9 0.3 2.8 0.559 20.07 0.269


If you're wondering - the All-WAR team after day #31 would be the same as day #30, since there were no games on Thanksgiving, hence no ratings changes.

Al Jefferson is back on the team - taking playing time in this lineup from Kevin Love - after going 23 & 12 with 3 assists, 0 turnovers, and a 59% TS% in a win over Milwaukee.

Anthony Davis going 22/10/3/2/4 with just 1 turnover in a win over the Sixers allowed him to once again jump over Roy Hibbert as the shot blocking post guy in this lineup.

Kevin Love is hanging on in a part time role solely because his rebounding is needed - Eric Bledsoe and Mike Conley (barely) have a better WAR/48 than Kevin.  He desperately needs to lead Minnesota to some wins again to help his WAR.


Dan

November 30, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #30

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
LeBron James 29 MIA 15 35.2 26.1 5.9 6.7 1.1 0.3 3.6 0.675 32.74 0.733
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 13 38.5 28.2 7.5 5.1 1.3 0.4 3.9 0.595 31.76 0.795
Paul George 23 IND 15 36.3 23.7 6.3 3.3 2.0 0.4 2.9 0.578 30.87 0.752
Chris Paul 28 LAC 16 35.0 19.0 5.0 12.2 2.4 0.1 2.9 0.574 29.09 0.729
Ty Lawson 26 DEN 14 36.1 20.9 3.9 8.4 1.3 0.1 2.7 0.553 20.96 0.753
Kevin Love 25 MIN 17 36.1 24.3 13.9 4.3 0.9 0.3 2.8 0.559 20.07 0.747
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 15 30.1 11.7 8.9 1.1 0.3 3.9 2.4 0.515 19.91 0.491


Ty Lawson's play has been top notch recently, and he is now on the team in place of Tony Parker.  Love and Hibbert are hanging on because their respective skills (rebounding and shot blocking) are needed for proper lineup balance.  Tony Parker and Eric Bledsoe actually have slightly better WAR/48 than Love.  Also, Mike Conley has a slightly better WAR/48 than Hibbert.  Anthony Davis and Serge Ibaka are nipping at the heels of Love and Hibbert for the bigs spots - there could be some real changes on this team come Saturday morning.

Dan

November 28, 2013

Day 30 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

I apologize for my few day hiatus, I was pretty sick and had absolutely no desire to think - let alone try to update the ratings &/or tweet &/or follow any social media for about 72 hours.  I updated the All WAR teams for each day (as you can see), and the complete NBA player rankings are now back on track.  The biggest positive trend players over the last week:

Nate Robinson, Denver: 236th a week ago, 157th yesterday, 136th today.
Channing Frye, Phoenix: #242/#151/#117
Jordan Farmar, LA Lakers: #202/#114/#92
Rodney Stuckey, Detroit: #134/#93/#85
Marcin Gortat, Washington: #111/#91/#68
Goran Dragic, Phoenix: #114/#71/#45
Kenneth Faried, Denver: #95/#50/#43
Dwyane Wade, Miami: #70/#36/#31
John Wall, Washington: #62/#22/#19
Serge Ibaka, OKC: #29/#17/#11
Ty Lawson, Denver: #12/#6/#5
LeBron James, Miami:#4/#3/#2

I won't update tommorrow, since there are no NBA games.  Next rankings update will be day 32 on 11/30 (through 11/29 games).

Complete rankings
HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 28, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #29

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 14 37.0 24.3 6.4 3.2 1.9 0.4 2.8 0.585 32.50 0.765
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 12 38.5 28.6 7.1 5.2 1.4 0.4 3.8 0.604 32.46 0.795
LeBron James 29 MIA 14 35.1 26.0 5.7 6.6 0.9 0.4 3.8 0.684 31.40 0.730
Chris Paul 28 LAC 15 35.6 19.3 5.0 12.5 2.4 0.1 2.9 0.572 27.99 0.742
Kevin Love 25 MIN 16 35.8 24.6 13.8 4.4 0.9 0.3 2.9 0.564 21.77 0.741
Tony Parker 31 SAS 14 29.9 17.9 2.4 6.1 0.5 0.1 2.6 0.579 21.67 0.624
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 14 30.1 11.6 8.9 1.0 0.3 4.1 2.4 0.528 20.08 0.603


We have a new shot blocking post - Roy Hibbert once again swapping in for Anthony Davis.  Ty Lawson, Tiago Splitter, Steph Curry, and Eric Bledsoe all had slightly better WAR/48 numbers than Hibbert - but obviously none of them can defend the paint like he's needed to do on this team.

Dan

November 27, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #28

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 14 37.0 24.3 6.4 3.2 1.9 0.4 2.8 0.585 32.50 0.765
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 12 38.5 28.6 7.1 5.2 1.4 0.4 3.8 0.604 32.47 0.795
LeBron James 29 MIA 14 35.1 26.0 5.7 6.6 0.9 0.4 3.8 0.684 31.41 0.730
Chris Paul 28 LAC 15 35.6 19.3 5.0 12.5 2.4 0.1 2.9 0.572 28.01 0.742
Kevin Love 25 MIN 16 35.8 24.6 13.8 4.4 0.9 0.3 2.9 0.564 21.76 0.741
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 13 35.2 19.8 10.6 1.6 1.8 3.9 1.5 0.555 21.34 0.734
Tony Parker 31 SAS 14 29.9 17.9 2.4 6.1 0.5 0.1 2.6 0.579 21.71 0.492


Al Jefferson falls from the team - his minutes replaced by Tony Parker getting closer to his full % of PT.  With the Timberwolves still losing, and Kevin Love's WAR/48 slowly dropping - the Big 4 of George, Durant, LeBron, and CP3 are distancing themselves from the pack.

Dan

November 26, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #27

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 12 38.5 28.6 7.1 5.2 1.4 0.4 3.8 0.604 32.49 0.795
Paul George 23 IND 13 36.8 24.2 6.2 3.2 1.8 0.4 2.5 0.576 30.82 0.760
LeBron James 29 MIA 13 35.2 25.3 5.8 6.8 0.9 0.3 3.8 0.667 29.57 0.732
Chris Paul 28 LAC 15 35.6 19.3 5.0 12.5 2.4 0.1 2.9 0.572 28.01 0.742
Kevin Love 25 MIN 15 35.5 24.9 13.6 4.5 0.9 0.3 2.7 0.575 23.09 0.734
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 12 35.4 20.7 11.0 1.7 1.9 3.9 1.4 0.557 23.03 0.738
Al Jefferson 29 CHA 5 28.2 14.6 7.8 2.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.474 22.20 0.210
Tony Parker 31 SAS 13 30.3 18.2 2.5 6.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 0.573 21.51 0.289


Same 8 players as yesterday.

Dan

November 25, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #26

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 11 39.5 29.5 6.9 5.5 1.4 0.5 3.8 0.603 32.93 0.816
Paul George 23 IND 13 36.8 24.2 6.2 3.2 1.8 0.4 2.5 0.576 30.82 0.760
LeBron James 29 MIA 13 35.2 25.3 5.8 6.8 0.9 0.3 3.8 0.667 29.59 0.732
Chris Paul 28 LAC 14 36.1 19.5 5.3 12.2 2.4 0.1 3.1 0.568 28.08 0.753
Kevin Love 25 MIN 15 35.5 24.9 13.6 4.5 0.9 0.3 2.7 0.575 23.08 0.734
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 12 35.4 20.7 11.0 1.7 1.9 3.9 1.4 0.557 23.00 0.738
Al Jefferson 29 CHA 5 28.2 14.6 7.8 2.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.474 22.17 0.210
Tony Parker 31 SAS 13 30.3 18.2 2.5 6.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 0.573 21.55 0.257


The top 8 guys in WAR/48 - Al Jefferson & Tony Parker now replace the Steph Curry minutes.

Dan

November 24, 2013


Day 26 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

The Blazers keep winning, and the projected WAR of Aldridge (ranked #8, 30/21/3/3/3 in the win), Matthews (#9, 23 points on 105%! TS% in the win), & Lillard (#12, didn't shoot well - but still with 20 points, 9 assists, & just 1 TO) remains fabulous.

Anthony Davis has squeaked into the #5 position as Love's projected WAR continues to drop with the Timberwolves losing ways.  In terms of projected WAR, we have a big 4 (Durant/George/James/CP3) followed by a drop off to Davis/Love - with some guys now nipping at their heels.

Roy Hibbert jumped 12 spots to #14 after going for 27 & 13 - with 6 blocks and a 68% TS% in their win. 

Complete rankings
HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 24, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #25

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 11 39.5 29.5 6.9 5.5 1.4 0.5 3.8 0.603 32.95 0.816
Paul George 23 IND 12 36.8 24.6 6.5 3.2 1.7 0.4 2.6 0.576 31.69 0.759
LeBron James 29 MIA 12 35.0 25.6 5.5 6.8 0.8 0.3 3.8 0.667 27.67 0.729
Chris Paul 28 LAC 13 36.0 19.3 5.2 12.5 2.5 0.1 3.2 0.562 26.26 0.750
Kevin Love 25 MIN 14 35.4 24.8 13.5 4.7 0.9 0.4 2.8 0.575 23.94 0.733
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 12 35.4 20.7 11.0 1.7 1.9 3.9 1.4 0.557 22.98 0.738
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 10 32.7 19.9 3.7 8.7 1.7 0.1 3.4 0.589 22.21 0.475


These are the top 7 guys in WAR/48, Anthony Davis has climbed up the ranks the last few days.

Dan

November 23, 2013


Day 25 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Wesley Matthews HAS to be the most underrated player in the NBA right now.  His 28 points and a 74% TS% in the win over the Bulls bumped him up 6 spots to #11 overall in projected WAR.  He actually just squeaked past his teammate Aldridge in the rankings.  Portland really has a three headed monster leading them to all these wins (Lillard/Matthews/Aldridge), with a 4th not far behind in Batum.  Portland has four guys in the top 19 right now, only two other teams have two - the Clippers (Paul/Griffin) & the Mavs (Dirk/Monta).

Anthony Davis may soon break into that top 5 that appeared to be distancing themselves from everyone just a few days back.

Complete rankings
HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 23, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #24

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 11 39.5 29.5 6.9 5.5 1.4 0.5 3.8 0.603 32.96 0.816
Paul George 23 IND 11 36.7 24.4 6.8 3.3 1.7 0.5 2.6 0.575 32.50 0.758
LeBron James 29 MIA 12 35.0 25.6 5.5 6.8 0.8 0.3 3.8 0.667 27.66 0.729
Chris Paul 28 LAC 13 36.0 19.3 5.2 12.5 2.5 0.1 3.2 0.562 26.25 0.750
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 10 32.7 19.9 3.7 8.7 1.7 0.1 3.4 0.589 23.38 0.563
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 11 35.5 21.0 10.8 1.7 1.9 4.0 1.3 0.562 21.45 0.740
Kevin Love 25 MIN 13 36.0 25.4 13.3 4.8 0.8 0.4 2.9 0.574 22.62 0.644


No change in the team from yesterday.

Dan

November 22, 2013


Day 24 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

I normally don't like to highlight the negative, but the big projected WAR move the last 24 hours was Luol Deng's precipitous drop.  Deng did have 13 rebounds, but he also only had 6 points with 4 turnovers and 17% TS% in the Bulls' 10 point loss to the Nuggets.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 22, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #23

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 11 36.7 24.4 6.8 3.3 1.7 0.5 2.6 0.575 32.48 0.758
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 10 39.7 29.6 7.0 5.2 1.4 0.5 4.1 0.604 31.24 0.818
LeBron James 29 MIA 12 35.0 25.6 5.5 6.8 0.8 0.3 3.8 0.667 27.66 0.729
Chris Paul 28 LAC 12 36.1 19.5 5.3 12.5 2.8 0.1 3.2 0.551 27.51 0.752
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 10 32.7 19.9 3.7 8.7 1.7 0.1 3.4 0.589 23.38 0.563
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 11 35.5 21.0 10.8 1.7 1.9 4.0 1.3 0.562 21.46 0.740
Kevin Love 25 MIN 13 36.0 25.4 13.3 4.8 0.8 0.4 2.9 0.574 22.63 0.640

Anthony Davis is back, replacing Roy Hibbert as the low post shot blocking monster.  Tony Parker actually has a slightly better WAR/48 (with the Spurs always winning) than Davis, but Davis makes this team's interior D legit.

Dan

November 21, 2013


Day 23 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

There's Anthony Davis.  He's been HnR/HnI strong all year - but his projected WAR had been lagging a little with the team not winning.  Well, with his 22/9/4 w/ EIGHT blocks, 1 TO, and 73% TS% in the leading the Pelicans to a win over the Jazz - he jumped him up 6 spots to #6, and is threatening the top 5 group that hasn't changed in over a week.

Being a Mavs fan and living in DFW - it's nice to see my main man Dirk still playing some high level ball, jumping up 10 spots to #15 after his 35/7/4 & 74% TS% in Mavs comeback win over the Rockets.  Monta Ellis hasn't been a slouch either, jumping up 18 spots himself to #25 after going for 37 with 8 assists and 2 steals (and a 77% TS%) in that same game.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 21, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #22

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 10 39.7 29.6 7.0 5.2 1.4 0.5 4.1 0.604 31.24 0.818
Paul George 23 IND 10 35.5 23.3 7.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 2.8 0.580 29.84 0.740
LeBron James 29 MIA 11 35.5 26.0 5.5 6.7 0.7 0.3 3.8 0.670 27.74 0.740
Kevin Love 25 MIN 12 35.9 26.7 13.4 4.5 0.8 0.4 2.8 0.596 26.05 0.742
Chris Paul 28 LAC 11 36.2 19.5 5.2 12.6 2.6 0.1 3.2 0.549 25.19 0.754
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 10 32.7 19.9 3.7 8.7 1.7 0.1 3.4 0.589 23.78 0.619
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 10 29.6 11.7 9.0 1.0 0.3 4.6 2.5 0.537 21.77 0.587


Four days in a row - same as it ever was.

Dan

November 20, 2013


Day 22 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Poor Eric Bledsoe, Suns lose to the Kings by 3 as he sits - and Eric drops 11 spots to #17 as his seasonal projected WAR takes a hit (Suns projected to win less games overall, Bledsoe projected to play less overall).  That shows how closely grouped the bunch of guys are after the Big 5.

The biggest beneficiary of Eric's missed game and the Kings win over the Suns was probably DeMarcus Cousins, jumping 26 spots to #35.  27/12/3/4/2 in a win for a team that was desperate for said win ensures a nice player projected WAR bump.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 20, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #21

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 10 39.7 29.6 7.0 5.2 1.4 0.5 4.1 0.604 31.24 0.818
Paul George 23 IND 10 35.5 23.3 7.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 2.8 0.580 29.86 0.740
LeBron James 29 MIA 10 36.0 27.3 5.4 6.9 0.7 0.3 3.9 0.686 28.95 0.750
Kevin Love 25 MIN 11 35.8 26.8 13.6 4.5 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.597 27.95 0.739
Chris Paul 28 LAC 11 36.2 19.5 5.2 12.6 2.6 0.1 3.2 0.549 25.21 0.754
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 10 32.7 19.9 3.7 8.7 1.7 0.1 3.4 0.589 23.80 0.619
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 10 29.6 11.7 9.0 1.0 0.3 4.6 2.5 0.537 21.70 0.580


Three days straight - the players are the same, only the WAR/48 values have changed.

Dan

November 19, 2013


Day 21 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Well, I worked all night (at my real job), still gotta watch the DVR'd UofA game that I had to miss while at work, and then hopefully get a good 5 hours sleep before picking up my boys at school and immediately going to work out.

So, I'm not gonna highlight anything - it's all there for one to see for themselves:

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 19, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #20

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 10 35.5 23.3 7.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 2.8 0.580 29.82 0.740
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 9 39.3 28.7 6.9 5.1 1.4 0.4 4.2 0.614 29.68 0.810
LeBron James 29 MIA 10 36.0 27.3 5.4 6.9 0.7 0.3 3.9 0.686 28.96 0.750
Kevin Love 25 MIN 11 35.8 26.8 13.6 4.5 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.597 27.99 0.739
Chris Paul 28 LAC 10 36.2 19.6 4.8 12.8 2.9 0.1 3.3 0.555 27.39 0.754
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 9 32.6 19.7 3.4 8.8 1.6 0.1 3.2 0.582 22.41 0.611
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 10 29.6 11.7 9.0 1.0 0.3 4.6 2.5 0.537 21.82 0.597


I thought yesterday's All-WAR team was easy to put together.  No change in the top of the WAR/48 rankings - so this team is exactly the same as yesterday's, with none of these guys playing.

Dan

November 18, 2013


Day 20 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Not much movement.  Probably the best bump would be Nicolas Batum, jumping 11 spots to #27 with his 24/6/4 and 73% TS% in the Blazers win over the Raptors.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 18, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #19
Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min WAR/48
Paul George 23 IND 10 35.5 23.3 7.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 2.8 0.580 0.740 29.83
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 9 39.3 28.7 6.9 5.1 1.4 0.4 4.2 0.614 0.810 29.70
LeBron James 29 MIA 10 36.0 27.3 5.4 6.9 0.7 0.3 3.9 0.686 0.750 28.98
Kevin Love 25 MIN 11 35.8 26.8 13.6 4.5 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.597 0.739 27.98
Chris Paul 28 LAC 10 36.2 19.6 4.8 12.8 2.9 0.1 3.3 0.555 0.754 27.43
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 9 32.6 19.7 3.4 8.8 1.6 0.1 3.2 0.582 0.611 22.44
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 10 29.6 11.7 9.0 1.0 0.3 4.6 2.5 0.537 0.597 21.77


Easiest All-WAR team to put together so far this season.  Obvious top 5 (as mentioned in player rankings posting a few minutes ago) - the other two are the highest WAR/48 guys left.  Luck has it - with Hibbert here - the top 7 WAR/48 guys actually form a viable 7 man team statistically across the board.

Dan

November 17, 2013


Day 19 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Blake Griffin - 30 & 12 with a 61% TS% in a win over the Nets jumps up 7 spots to #7.

The cream has risen to the top.  The top 5 (Durant, George, LeBron, Love, & CP3) have really set themselves apart from the rest of the Association after yesterday's games.  The difference between #5 CP3 & #6 Bledsoe (5.71 projected WAR difference) is larger than the difference between #6 Bledsoe and #38 Batum.  That's a pretty shockingly large schism - as well as quite a large grouping of similar projected WAR's after the top 5.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 17, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #18

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 9 35.8 24.6 7.1 3.3 1.6 0.3 2.8 0.601 35.59 0.745
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 8 39.6 29.3 7.1 5.5 1.5 0.5 4.4 0.611 29.55 0.815
Kevin Love 25 MIN 10 36.1 27.2 13.8 4.8 0.8 0.5 2.3 0.598 27.70 0.744
Chris Paul 28 LAC 9 36.4 20.4 4.6 12.8 2.9 0.1 3.6 0.566 26.71 0.759
Wilson Chandler 26 DEN 2 21.5 15.5 4.5 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 0.674 25.99 0.112
LeBron James 29 MIA 9 36.4 27.0 5.6 6.9 0.7 0.2 4.0 0.679 25.74 0.759
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 8 31.9 20.3 3.5 8.5 1.6 0.1 3.6 0.618 23.30 0.590
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 9 29.6 11.4 8.9 1.1 0.3 4.8 2.7 0.539 22.52 0.475


Well, for the first time in a number of days - we have an All-WAR team that is comprised of the actual top WAR/48 guys - without having to do some rearranging for lineup statistical balance (to get that shot blocking big in there).  Roy Hibbert isn't just in the lineup because he blocks shots better than some entire teams - his overall WAR has been moving upward consistantly, enough to earn a spot based on his WAR/48 alone.

Bledsoe drops out.  LeBron is now playing full time minutes (scoring 39 with an 83% TS% in a win guaranteed that), and we have another low minute/great production guy sneak in (Wilson Chandler in just 43 total minutes on the season).

Dan

November 16, 2013


Day 18 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

It was a night for the bigs, four bigs making moves up into the Top 20.

Brook Lopez moved up 21 spots to #16 with his 27 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks, and a 64% TS% in an OT win over the Suns.

Roy Hibbert moved up 14 spots to #11, with his 24 points, 10 rebounds, 8 blocks, and a 86% TS% in the Pacers blow out of the Bucks.

LaMarcus Aldridge went 27 & 12 with a 64% TS% in the Blazers win over the Celtics, jumping him up 8 spots to #13.

And finally, Al Horford squeaked into the Top 20, moving 8 spots up to #19 - on  the strength of his 20 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, and 59% TS% in a victory over the Sixers.  His point guard Jeff Teague moved up 21 spots himself to #29, with his 33 points, 10 assists, and 73% TS%.

Four other bigs saw increases of more than 2 in their projected WAR from last night's wins:  Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph of Memphis, along with the Pistons' Andre Drummond and the Bulls' Joakim Noah.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 16, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #17
Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 8 36.6 24.9 7.8 3.6 1.5 0.4 3.0 0.599 37.57 0.763
Kevin Love 25 MIN 9 36.2 27.1 14.2 5.1 0.6 0.3 2.2 0.598 30.40 0.745
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 8 39.6 29.3 7.1 5.5 1.5 0.5 4.4 0.611 29.54 0.815
Chris Paul 28 LAC 9 36.4 20.4 4.6 12.8 2.9 0.1 3.6 0.566 26.67 0.759
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 8 34.3 21.1 4.3 7.1 1.8 0.1 4.1 0.608 23.42 0.713
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 8 31.9 20.3 3.5 8.5 1.6 0.1 3.6 0.618 23.27 0.590
Roy Hibbert 27 IND 8 29.4 9.9 8.8 1.1 0.4 4.4 2.4 0.485 18.32 0.612
LeBron James 29 MIA 8 36.4 25.5 5.5 7.3 0.6 0.3 3.8 0.656 22.63 0.002


With all the top WAR/48 guys being below average shot blockers - an even bigger low post defender than Anthony Davis was needed - and up steps Roy Hibbert.  Big Roy's WAR/48 is just barely lower than Davis', but his even larger shot block rating was needed to get this lineup above average in that respect.

LeBron is back on the team, albeit in the most limited garbage minute role.

Bledsoe is back up to full minutes, while Jefferson is the other guy who got bumped off the team with Anthony Davis.

Dan

November 15, 2013


Day 17 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Durant loses his 6 day hold at #1 in projected WAR after losing by 1 to Golden State.  Paul George back at #1 without even playing.

Harden going 36 & 9 with a 69% TS% in a win over the Knicks gets him back into the Top 10 from #16 to #8. 

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 15, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #16

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 7 39.3 30.6 7.1 5.1 1.7 0.6 4.3 0.615 38.33 0.807
Paul George 23 IND 8 36.6 24.9 7.8 3.6 1.5 0.4 3.0 0.599 37.58 0.763
Kevin Love 25 MIN 9 36.2 27.1 14.2 5.1 0.6 0.3 2.2 0.598 30.40 0.745
Chris Paul 28 LAC 9 36.4 20.4 4.6 12.8 2.9 0.1 3.6 0.566 26.65 0.759
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 7 30.3 20.0 3.3 8.4 1.7 0.1 3.9 0.651 23.96 0.552
Al Jefferson 29 CHA 3 30.3 15.0 8.7 2.3 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.441 19.62 0.237
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 9 36.1 21.8 11.2 1.6 2.1 3.1 1.3 0.551 18.47 0.752
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 8 34.3 21.1 4.3 7.1 1.8 0.1 4.1 0.608 23.43 0.384

CP3 is now playing his full minutes, while Steph Curry and Al Jefferson are now on the team after Bledsoe and Morris suffered a blow to their WAR by losing to the Blazers.  Bledsoe hangs on with partial PT, while Morris falls from the team completely.  Jefferson and Davis make the team pretty much because they are the highest WAR/48 shot blockers that can make this lineup better than league average in that skillset.  LeBron, Parker, and Morris were the odd men out because they don't reject shots at a better rate than Jefferson or Davis.

Dan

November 14, 2013


Day 16 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Bunch of guys made some moves in the rankings today - here are the ones that jump out at me:

Ty Lawson jumps from #18 into the top 10 at #9 after going 19/6/7/3/1 with just 1 turnover in leading Denver to a win over the Lakers.

Arron Afflalo makes a huge jump from #54 into the top 20 at #18 with his 36/8/6 and 100% TS% performance, almost single handedly beating the Bucks.

And finally Gordon Hayward gets to earn some WAR - after going 27 & 10 with a 71% TS% in leading the Jazz over the Pelicans.  Going from a zero (Utah was winless) to a 4.3 projected WAR allowed Gordon to jump 153 spots to #108.  Being 19th in the NBA in both HnR & HnI - any future Jazz wins will give him a big boost in projected WAR. 

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 14, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #15

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 6 38.8 30.2 7.3 4.3 1.7 0.7 4.2 0.614 42.61 0.795
Paul George 23 IND 8 36.6 24.9 7.8 3.6 1.5 0.4 3.0 0.599 37.53 0.763
Kevin Love 25 MIN 8 36.8 26.4 15.0 5.0 0.6 0.4 2.5 0.583 29.61 0.755
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 7 34.0 20.9 4.4 7.3 1.9 0.1 4.3 0.627 27.01 0.708
Markieff Morris 24 PHO 6 28.8 17.2 6.8 1.7 1.7 0.2 1.3 0.669 26.52 0.515
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 8 36.1 20.9 10.8 1.6 2.3 3.4 1.4 0.540 19.47 0.753
Chris Paul 28 LAC 8 35.9 21.3 4.3 12.4 2.9 0.0 3.8 0.584 25.49 0.711


Anthony Davis continues to get maximized minutes on this team for lineup balance - since he's the only real shot blocker.  Five players had better WAR/48 than Davis but were bumped for his interior defense (in order of WAR/48: Curry/Parker/LeBron/Boozer/Harden).  The team actually is the same as yesterday's - with CP3 getting a little less PT, and Davis a little more.

Dan

November 13, 2013


Day 15 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Top 10 remains the same, just a little reshuffling.

Stephen Curry is making a run for the top 10, jumping from #27 to #12 in projected WAR in one day after going 25 & 8 with a 86% TS% in a blow out win over the Pistons.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 13, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #14

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 6 38.8 30.2 7.3 4.3 1.7 0.7 4.2 0.614 42.61 0.795
Paul George 23 IND 8 36.6 24.9 7.8 3.6 1.5 0.4 3.0 0.599 37.57 0.763
Kevin Love 25 MIN 8 36.8 26.4 15.0 5.0 0.6 0.4 2.5 0.583 29.55 0.755
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 7 34.0 20.9 4.4 7.3 1.9 0.1 4.3 0.627 27.06 0.708
Markieff Morris 24 PHO 6 28.8 17.2 6.8 1.7 1.7 0.2 1.3 0.669 26.49 0.515
Chris Paul 28 LAC 8 35.9 21.3 4.3 12.4 2.9 0.0 3.8 0.584 25.56 0.747
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 7 37.6 21.7 11.6 1.6 2.3 3.9 1.4 0.537 20.96 0.717


Well, Del Colo's really good 9 minutes are out.  Parker is replaced by CP3.

Anthony Davis is still in the lineup because of his elite shot blocking for lineup balance - even though his WAR/48 is actually a little worse than Parker's or LeBron's.

Dan

November 12, 2013


Day 14 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Worked all night - too tired to say anything except have a wonderful day!

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 12, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #13

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 6 38.8 30.2 7.3 4.3 1.7 0.7 4.2 0.614 42.63 0.795
Paul George 23 IND 7 37.3 25.1 7.9 4.0 1.7 0.4 3.1 0.599 39.29 0.776
Kevin Love 25 MIN 7 36.4 26.9 14.4 4.7 0.7 0.4 2.4 0.588 33.47 0.747
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 7 34.0 20.9 4.4 7.3 1.9 0.1 4.3 0.627 27.09 0.708
Markieff Morris 24 PHO 6 28.8 17.2 6.8 1.7 1.7 0.2 1.3 0.669 26.44 0.515
Tony Parker 31 SAS 7 32.0 19.0 3.0 6.6 0.7 0.1 2.4 0.554 24.74 0.665
Nando De Colo 26 SAS 1 9.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.250 24.37 0.027
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 7 37.6 21.7 11.6 1.6 2.3 3.9 1.4 0.537 20.95 0.766


Little weirdness here.  Yes, that's Markieff Morris - and yes, he's been playing outta his mind. 

Nando De Colo comes in with an incredibly efficient 9 total season minutes for a winning team.  So he earns a tiny PT spot here.  Having CP3 replaced by Nando & Markieff was unexpected to say the least.

Anthony Davis is needed in the lineup for balance - being the only good (great) interior defender (shot block rating).  Plus he makes this a very good rebounding team.  He was actually behind CP3, Conley, and LeBron in terms of WAR/48 - but including any of them in place of Davis would make this team well below average in terms of shot blocking.

Dan

November 11, 2013


Day 13 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

I now have included the past projected WAR ranking a day ago and a week ago, along with change in projected WAR over the last day and over the last week.  So now on can see that Markieff Morris was ranked 179th a week ago, 28th yesterday, and 13th today (going 23/5/2/2/1 with 0 turnovers and 82% TS% in last night's win).  I'd say he's been trending upward.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 11, 2013



NBA All-WAR Team after Day #12

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 5 37.4 29.6 6.2 4.0 2.0 0.6 4.0 0.617 40.60 0.779
Paul George 23 IND 7 37.3 25.1 7.9 4.0 1.7 0.4 3.1 0.599 39.24 0.776
Kevin Love 25 MIN 6 36.5 27.2 14.7 5.0 0.7 0.5 2.3 0.580 34.79 0.747
Tony Parker 31 SAS 6 33.0 19.3 3.2 6.7 0.8 0.2 2.2 0.542 27.90 0.688
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 6 37.7 23.0 11.5 1.7 2.0 4.3 1.5 0.548 25.56 0.786
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 6 34.0 20.3 4.5 7.5 2.0 0.0 4.2 0.604 25.04 0.708
Chris Paul 28 LAC 7 36.1 21.3 4.3 12.6 2.7 0.0 3.4 0.584 23.42 0.516


Exit Spencer Hawes coming off a loss, enter Chris Paul and his 13 assists in a win.  Also, Miami losing a game that was a certain win with 0.6 seconds left & Wade at the line with a 2 point lead allowed Paul to creep onto the All-WAR lineup ahead of LeBron.

Dan

November 10, 2013


Day 12 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Top 5 of Durant/George/Love/Davis/Parker remain the same from yesterday.

Mike Conley makes a nice seven spot upward move to #10 after leading Memphis to an 18 point win over the Warriors - going for 20 points with 3 boards, 6 assists, 3 steals, and a whopping 87% TS%.  

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 10, 2013



NBA All-WAR Team after Day #11

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 5 37.4 29.6 6.2 4.0 2.0 0.6 4.0 0.617 40.60 0.779
Paul George 23 IND 6 37.5 25.3 8.2 4.3 1.8 0.5 3.2 0.582 39.62 0.781
Kevin Love 25 MIN 6 36.5 27.2 14.7 5.0 0.7 0.5 2.3 0.580 34.73 0.747
Tony Parker 31 SAS 6 33.0 19.3 3.2 6.7 0.8 0.2 2.2 0.542 28.00 0.688
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 6 37.7 23.0 11.5 1.7 2.0 4.3 1.5 0.548 25.45 0.786
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 6 34.0 20.3 4.5 7.5 2.0 0.0 4.2 0.604 25.13 0.708
Spencer Hawes 25 PHI 6 31.7 16.0 10.3 3.3 0.5 2.2 2.3 0.658 24.96 0.511


And,
just as quickly as he entered - King James departed.  LeBron got bumped without playing a game (he's 8th in WAR/48, just barely outside this group), making room for others who took the bull by the horns in big wins yesterday.  Brook Lopez and Harrison Barnes (& his previous big 14 total minutes of game data from one game) also dropped off the team

As previously noted in my Day 11 WAR post below - Anthony Davis scored, rebounded, and defended his way with a vengeance to earn a spot on this team today.

Spencer Hawes also snuck back onto the team - with a very tidy 10 points, 7 rebounds, 6 blocks, and 3 assists to go with his zero turnovers and 71% TS% in a win over the Cavs.

Dan

November 9, 2013


Day 11 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

We have a new #1 in projected WAR - Kevin Durant.  37/8/7/3/1 and a 76% TS% in a win over the Pistons was enough to eke out Paul George for the top spot.

Anthony Davis might already be a superstar.  Going 32 & 12 with 6 blocks and a 68% TS% in a win over the Lakers allows him to jump 9 spots up in the projected WAR rankings to #4.

The Sixers have three(!) players ranked in the Top 13 in projected WAR - no other team has more than one.  The Sixers have won 67% of their games, and my WAR has Spencer Hawes (ranked 10th), Evan Turner (12th), and Michael Carter-Williams (13th) accounting for 3.32 (83%) of those wins.  It's highly doubtful the Sixers will be able to keep winning with such a disproportionate number of wins attributed to just three players.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 9, 2013



NBA All-WAR Team after Day #10

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min WAR/48
Paul George 23 IND 5 37.2 25.8 8.2 4.0 1.8 0.6 3.2 0.614 0.774 40.62
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 4 35.8 27.8 5.8 3.3 1.8 0.5 4.3 0.581 0.745 36.02
Kevin Love 25 MIN 5 36.8 26.2 14.6 4.4 0.8 0.4 2.4 0.560 0.752 29.55
Tony Parker 31 SAS 5 33.0 19.6 2.8 7.2 0.8 0.2 2.2 0.557 0.687 26.57
Harrison Barnes 21 GSW 1 14.0 14.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.778 0.058 25.45
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 5 33.8 21.0 5.0 7.2 1.8 0.0 4.4 0.597 0.704 24.21
Brook Lopez 25 BRK 4 28.0 20.5 6.0 0.8 1.0 3.0 1.5 0.626 0.585 23.71
LeBron James 29 MIA 6 37.5 24.3 5.5 7.7 0.8 0.3 3.7 0.640 0.695 24.16


Well, there he is.  His minutes are lessened since he's the lowest WAR/minute guy not named Brook (whose shot blocking ensures full PT), but King James makes his debut on the '13-14 NBA All-WAR team.  Coincidentally, my head didn't explode off my shoulders, so there's that.

Chris Paul (surprisingly) and Spencer Hawes (not so surprisingly) got bumped from the team by Bledsoe getting his full minutes and LeBron.  Hawes and his interior defense actually almost bumped LeBron - this team BARELY having a better than average block shot rating.


Dan

November 8, 2013


Day 10 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Nuggets get their first win, allowing their best players to finally start reaping the benefits of actually having a projected WAR above 0.  Ty Lawson is the biggest beneficiary, jumping from 243rd to 39th in the NBA in projected WAR

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 8, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #9

I have a confession to make - I've been cheating a wee little bit on my All-WAR lineup rules.  The last couple days, the team's block shot rate was actually a bit below league average.  So, theoretically, the team was lacking in interior defense.  It definitely lacked post depth (which can be tricky with a 7 or 8 man fantasy team).

Well, I followed my rules today - this team is well above average in all the prerequisite ratings skillsets (shooting/scoring, rebounding, ball handling, passing, steals, and blocks).  It also has two guys who would play  tiny minutes on the season in this fantasy lineup (Harrison Barnes, based on his limited real world minutes from playing real well just one real game - and Eric Bledsoe, based on the infinitesimally small amount of remaining fake minutes on our fantasy team to get to 100% team minutes allotted):

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Paul George 23 IND 5 37.2 25.8 8.2 4.0 1.8 0.6 3.2 0.614 40.60 0.774
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 4 35.8 27.8 5.8 3.3 1.8 0.5 4.3 0.581 36.00 0.745
Kevin Love 25 MIN 5 36.8 26.2 14.6 4.4 0.8 0.4 2.4 0.560 29.52 0.752
Chris Paul 28 LAC 5 35.6 24.8 4.0 12.6 3.0 0.0 3.2 0.623 29.27 0.741
Tony Parker 31 SAS 5 33.0 19.6 2.8 7.2 0.8 0.2 2.2 0.557 26.62 0.687
Harrison Barnes 21 GSW 1 14.0 14.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.778 25.44 0.058
Spencer Hawes 25 PHI 5 31.6 17.2 11.0 3.4 0.6 1.4 2.8 0.652 24.05 0.658
Brook Lopez 25 BRK 4 28.0 20.5 6.0 0.8 1.0 3.0 1.5 0.626 23.68 0.585
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 5 33.8 21.0 5.0 7.2 1.8 0.0 4.4 0.597 24.25 0.001

One guess who the odd man out was.  Yes, him.  It's so close now, and I did mention I couldn't imagine it getting to 10 days without his yet appearing on a single All-WAR team.  So, we'll see if he becomes a fixture in the All-WAR lineup starting tommorrow.

Dan
November 7, 2013


Day 9 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Tony Parker going for 20 points, 6 assists, 1 turnover, and a 65% TS% in a win over the Suns jumps him up from 11th to 6th in the rankings.
 
The big move though was Nikola Vucevic, leading the Magic over the Clippers with 30 points, 21 rebounds, and a 65% TS% - vaulting him from 26th to 9th.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 7, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #8

Bledsoe in, Stephenson out. Enjoy!

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Paul George 23 IND 4 36.5 27.0 8.8 4.3 2.3 0.8 3.5 0.655 0.759
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 3 35.3 29.3 6.7 1.0 1.7 0.7 4.0 0.587 0.737
Chris Paul 28 LAC 4 35.8 26.5 3.8 13.3 3.3 0.0 3.0 0.667 0.745
Kevin Love 25 MIN 4 36.5 26.5 14.3 4.0 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.589 0.741
Eric Bledsoe 24 PHO 4 34.5 22.8 5.8 7.8 2.3 0.0 5.5 0.611 0.719
Spencer Hawes 25 PHI 4 29.8 15.8 10.5 3.0 0.5 1.3 2.0 0.656 0.620
Michael Carter-Williams 22 PHI 4 35.3 20.0 5.0 7.8 3.3 0.0 3.3 0.516 0.679


Dan
November 6, 2013


Day 8 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Way too tired to write anything.... hoping to be asleep in maybe 10 minutes.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 6, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #7

The two Sixer representatives are barely hanging on after losing to the Warriors.  Lance Stephenson jumped onto the team by not playing - bumping out Harden after the Rockets got whipped by the Clippers.

Now a FULL week of a LeBronless All-WAR team.  My head isn't officially blown yet, but we're getting close.  Now, if he's not on the All-WAR team by day 10, odds are I'll be headless.

Player Pos Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Paul George SF IND 3 35.3 25.7 8.3 4.3 1.7 1.0 3.3 0.611 0.733
Kevin Durant SF OKC 3 35.3 29.3 6.7 1.0 1.7 0.7 4.0 0.587 0.737
Chris Paul PG LAC 4 35.8 26.5 3.8 13.3 3.3 0.0 3.0 0.667 0.745
Lance Stephenson SG IND 3 36.3 19.0 6.7 4.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.704 0.754
Kevin Love PF MIN 4 36.5 26.5 14.3 4.0 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.589 0.741
Spencer Hawes C PHI 4 29.8 15.8 10.5 3.0 0.5 1.3 2.0 0.656 0.620
Michael Carter-Williams PG PHI 4 35.3 20.0 5.0 7.8 3.3 0.0 3.3 0.516 0.670


Dan
November 5, 2013


Day 7 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Without playing, Lance Stephenson moved up to #4 just by Love, MCW, and Harden losing.

Also - the reason you don't see Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson near the very top (Curry is 11th in projected WAR, 5th in HnR & HnI - Klay is 22nd in projected WAR and 18th in HnR & HnI) - EVERYONE on that team is producing (high pace and great offensive efficiency as a team), repressing the individual ratings a bit (for projWAR there's only just over 60 projected wins to dole out to a bunch of high production guys through 4 games).  Also remember, the player ratings (HnI, HnR) perfectly combine (when weighted by their minutes) to equal the team whole - nobody stands out that much from their teammates on that current 3-1 team to get average LeBron level ratings.

Note that Anthony Davis is actually 2nd in Hoops Nerd Rating (BARELY ahead of CP3 & Love), but 12th in projected WAR because the Pelicans only project to win just over 27 games.

The quirks of early season/small sample size rankings. 

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Rankings with change in ProWAR, WAR/48, HnR, & HnI over the last day's games HERE.

Same 1 Day change in ratings sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 5, 2013


I remember when I used to play Morning Pickup

Yep, in my younger days, almost every day I'd march right over to the ol' Bear Down Gym at the University of Arizona right after whatever my first class of the day happened to be - seeing if I could find a find a good game of "morning pickup".  I was a gym rat. 

Well, it appears 
Morning Pickup has found me - featuring my work at their site.  Maybe this is just the start of something foretold by a person who is obviously Nosterdamus reincarnate over at PGU less than a week ago.  For now though, I'm honored to see my work "spread", even if just a little.  Plus, so far, human lives have been spared.

Weird thing, there's a guy named 
Matt who is called "Hoop Nerd" over there already.  I'm sure that won't be confusing.  Whatevs - I'm keeping my eye on that guy, not sure I can trust a guy with a nickname like that.

Anyway - expect other work that you may see here to appear over there from time to time, check it out.

Dan
November 4, 2013



NBA All-WAR Team after Day #6

Well, Kevin Durant has just made his move onto the team - giving Miles Plumlee the boot.  The other six players from day #5 remain.

Almost a full week - still no LeBron.....

Player Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Paul George IND 3 35.3 25.7 8.3 4.3 1.7 1.0 3.3 0.611 0.733
Kevin Love MIN 3 36.7 29.7 14.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 2.0 0.640 0.738
Kevin Durant OKC 3 35.3 29.3 6.7 1.0 1.7 0.7 4.0 0.587 0.737
Michael Carter-Williams PHI 3 35.3 20.7 4.7 9.0 4.3 0.0 2.3 0.569 0.737
Chris Paul LAC 3 36.3 27.7 4.0 12.0 3.7 0.0 3.3 0.664 0.759
Spencer Hawes PHI 3 31.0 19.3 11.3 3.0 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.725 0.647
James Harden HOU 3 39.7 26.0 3.7 4.3 2.7 0.3 4.7 0.645 0.649


Dan
November 4, 2013


Day 6 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Poor Miles Plumlee, drops from 6th in projected WAR to 47th in one day.  24 minute 0/5/0/0/1 line w/ 3 turnovers in a loss will do that this early in the season.

BAM, Kevin Durant is now #3.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Rankings with change in ProWAR, WAR/48, HnR, & HnI over the last day's games HERE.

Same 1 Day change in ratings sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 4, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #5

Still a tight 7 man rotation, Manu dropped off the team after their loss - to be replaced by another surprise big... Spencer Hawes.  Yes, there's a Plumlee and a Hawes on the All-WAR team.  I know it's only day 5 - but how great is that?

Player Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Paul George IND 3 35.3 25.7 8.3 4.3 1.7 1.0 3.3 0.611 0.733
Kevin Love MIN 2 34.5 27.5 14.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.640 0.685
Michael Carter-Williams PHI 3 35.3 20.7 4.7 9.0 4.3 0.0 2.3 0.569 0.737
Chris Paul LAC 3 36.3 27.7 4.0 12.0 3.7 0.0 3.3 0.664 0.759
Spencer Hawes PHI 3 31.0 19.3 11.3 3.0 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.725 0.647
Miles Plumlee PHO 2 37.5 15.5 14.0 0.5 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.574 0.781
James Harden HOU 3 39.7 26.0 3.7 4.3 2.7 0.3 4.7 0.645 0.658


Dan
November 3, 2013


Day 5 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Tony Parker dropped out of the Top 10.  Who made their debut?  Wait for it....

P.J. Tucker - in at #10.  Early season is fun.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Rankings with change in ProWAR, WAR/48, HnR, & HnI over the last day's games HERE.

Same 1 Day change in ratings sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 3, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after Day #4

The top 3 (George/Love/Carter-Williams) remain from yesterday, the other 4 are making their season debuts on the All-WAR team.

Yes, that is Miles Plumlee.  Enjoy it while it lasts Miles.

Player Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Paul George IND 2 38.0 28.0 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 3.0 0.622 0.790
Kevin Love MIN 2 34.5 27.5 14.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.640 0.685
Michael Carter-Williams PHI 2 34.0 18.0 5.0 8.5 5.0 0.0 1.5 0.600 0.708
Chris Paul LAC 3 36.3 27.7 4.0 12.0 3.7 0.0 3.3 0.664 0.759
James Harden HOU 2 38.0 27.5 3.5 4.0 2.5 0.0 4.5 0.679 0.792
Miles Plumlee PHO 2 37.5 15.5 14.0 0.5 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.574 0.781
Manu Ginobili SAS 2 25.5 16.0 3.5 4.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.653 0.485

Manu actually was a little better than Miles in WAR per minute - but Miles' rebounding and shot blocking were needed at their fullest to preserve proper lineup statistical balance.

Dan
November 2, 2013


Day 4 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Paul George of the Pacers has worked his way up to the top spot.  It's obviously very early in the season, but seeing Michael Carter-Williams, Miles Plumlee, Lance Stephenson, and Spencer Hawes in the top 9 is a little jarring.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

[LATE EDIT] Rankings with change in ProWAR, WAR/48, HnR, & HnI over the last day's games HERE.

[LATE EDIT] Same 1 Day change in ratings sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 2, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after day #3

Identical group and stats from Day #2, since none of these guys played yesterday:


Player Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Michael Carter-Williams PHI 1 36.0 22.0 7.0 12.0 9.0 0.0 1.0 0.786 0.756
Kevin Durant OKC 1 39.0 42.0 6.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 0.583 0.816
Kevin Love MIN 1 41.0 31.0 17.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.574 0.771
DeMarcus Cousins SAC 1 39.0 30.0 14.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 0.508 0.813
Paul George IND 2 38.0 28.0 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 3.0 0.622 0.790
Monta Ellis DAL 1 37.0 32.0 4.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 0.762 0.768
Dwight Howard HOU 1 35.0 17.0 26.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 0.531 0.287

But, what about Chris Paul (42/15/6 last game Chris Paul)?  Well, he is #2 in the NBA in Hoops Nerd Rating behind MCW, BUT the Clippers being 1-1 projects to only 41 team wins on the season, making him "just" 12th in the NBA in WAR per minute.  MANY players (including all 7 listed above) are playing on teams projecting to 82 wins.  Just one of those weird things so early in the season and with such small sample sizes in terms of player stats and team wins.

Dan
November 1, 2013


Day 3 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Chris Paul jumps up from 148th to 9th.  42 points, 15 assists, 6 steals the last game on a team that now projects to 41 wins (after 2 games) instead of zero wins will cause a bit of a bump up the rankings.

Complete rankings HERE.

Same rankings, but sorted by team HERE.

Dan
November 1, 2013


NBA All-WAR Team after day #2

One player, Paul George, remains from yesterday.


Player Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Michael Carter-Williams PHI 1 36.0 22.0 7.0 12.0 9.0 0.0 1.0 0.786 0.756
Kevin Durant OKC 1 39.0 42.0 6.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 0.583 0.816
Kevin Love MIN 1 41.0 31.0 17.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.574 0.771
DeMarcus Cousins SAC 1 39.0 30.0 14.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 0.508 0.813
Paul George IND 2 38.0 28.0 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 3.0 0.622 0.790
Monta Ellis DAL 1 37.0 32.0 4.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 0.762 0.768
Dwight Howard HOU 1 35.0 17.0 26.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 0.531 0.287

Still no LeBron obviously. Will we make it a full week before he anchors himself on this team? Some great performances yesterday, team is only 7 deep because every guy played big minutes. Durant obviously has staying power - will Dwight become a mainstay again like his old Magic days?

Dan
October 31, 2013


Day 2 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Rookie at #1.

Complete rankings HERE.

Dan
October 31, 2013




After NBA Day 1 All-WAR Team

Fans of role players, rejoice!  Role players galore after one day and just three NBA teams with wins.  Enjoy.


Player Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min
Jordan Hill LAL 1 18.0 12.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.750 0.375
Lance Stephenson IND 1 36.0 19.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.731 0.747
Paul George IND 1 36.0 24.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 0.615 0.747
Xavier Henry LAL 1 26.0 22.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.647 0.542
Roy Hibbert IND 1 27.0 8.0 16.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 3.0 0.500 0.560
Shane Battier MIA 1 22.0 14.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.167 0.460
Jordan Farmar LAL 1 27.0 16.0 4.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.667 0.563
Mario Chalmers MIA 1 27.0 13.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 0.565 0.565
Norris Cole MIA 1 21.0 11.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.786 0.439
Chris Andersen MIA 1 17.0 6.0 8.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.600 0.002

Remember, these are the tops in WAR/minute (or WAR/48 - however you wanna look at it).

Anti-LeBron fans - enjoy it while it lasts.

Beardown big Jordan Hill!

As for the entire NBA player rankings: CLICK HERE.

Dan
October 30, 2013



Day 1 WAR - Complete NBA Player Rankings

Let's just say, after three games - 6 of the top 9 guys make a fan go "whaaat?"

Three of the top four in WAR are from the same team.

Very familiar guy at #5, won't make the All NBA WAR team today - he'll certainly be on it within the week and stay on it the rest of the season.

The Bulls' Carlos Boozer (32 min, 31 pts, 7 reb, 76% TS%) & the Magic's Andrew Nicholson (19 min, 18 pts, 4 reb, 90% TS%) have the 2nd and 3rd best Hoops Nerd Ratings overall - but since their teams are 0-1, they currently have a big fat zero for WAR.  The follies of the first few games of a season.

A fellow Arizona alum (Beardown!) has the #1 Hoops Nerd Rating and #1 WAR/minute.  He'll obviously be on the All WAR Team - posting in about a half and hour.

Complete rankings HERE.

Dan
October 30, 2013



The All-WAR Team & Daily Write Ups Explanation

I'll be, starting today, updating WAR day by day as the 2013-14 NBA season unfolds.  Every day (hopefully in the mornings - if the data is available to me yet) I'll redo the entire NBA rankings according to projected full season WAR ("projected WAR" to make it fair/realistic - as the season unfolds not every team has played the same number of games) and post the results.  The rankings will include change in projected WAR the last 24 hours (see whose latest game boosted/hurt their WAR projections), the last week, the last four weeks, and the last 8 weeks (the latter 3 obviously will be added as soon as the season has been long enough).  Early in the season, these results will be a bit volatile, each game significantly changes team win total projections (1-0 team projects to 82-0), obviously causing large fluctuations in projected player WARs.  That'll settle a few weeks into the season.  As it were though, while the projected WAR totals will be unrealistic looking early, the actual rankings will be significant - it'll still be the best players leading their teams to victories.

I'll also be updating the All-WAR team every day.  This isn't purely the top 5 or 10 WAR guys, it's formed with the idea that one would try to build the best TEAM based on WAR/minute - in essence maximizing the WAR total for that team.  SO, it'll be the top WAR/minute guys, with each player's real seasonal % of team minutes played included as the playing time factor for the All-WAR team.  The team will usually be 8 or 9 total players (to complete a full season of playing time) - with the last guy on the bench factoring at whatever % team minutes needed to make our All-WAR team a full 100% seasonal playing time.  OK, I know that's confusing - here's the 2012-13 regular season All-WAR team:


Player Age Tm G M/g Pt/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% %Min WAR
LeBron James 28 MIA 76 37.9 26.8 8.0 7.3 1.7 0.9 3.0 0.628 0.724 28.52
Kevin Durant 24 OKC 81 38.5 28.1 7.9 4.6 1.4 1.3 3.5 0.631 0.786 22.61
Chris Paul 27 LAC 70 33.4 16.9 3.7 9.7 2.4 0.1 2.3 0.583 0.592 15.81
Carmelo Anthony 28 NYK 67 37.0 28.7 6.9 2.6 0.8 0.5 2.6 0.550 0.629 15.35
Tim Duncan 36 SAS 69 30.1 17.8 9.9 2.7 0.7 2.7 2.1 0.545 0.523 12.48
Tony Parker 30 SAS 66 32.9 20.3 3.0 7.6 0.8 0.1 2.6 0.578 0.547 12.13
Dwyane Wade 31 MIA 69 34.7 21.2 5.0 5.1 1.9 0.8 2.8 0.560 0.601 13.29
Brook Lopez 24 BRK 74 30.4 19.4 6.9 0.9 0.4 2.1 1.8 0.557 0.567 11.89
Stephen Curry 24 GSW 78 38.2 22.9 4.0 6.9 1.6 0.2 3.1 0.582 0.031 0.66

The %Min is exactly what the player played for their respective teams - EXCEPT the last guy (in this case Curry), whose %Min will be whatever was needed to get this team to 5.000 total (5 positions at 100% available minutes played is a full NBA team season).

There is a BIG rule I follow though - the All-WAR team MUST be a better than the average NBA team in terms of Hoops Nerd Rating in EVERY ONE of the following rating breakdowns: scoring/shooting, rebounding, passing (assists), ball handling (assists & turnovers), & BOTH forms of defensive "stops" (steals and blocks).   This insures a "viable" All-WAR team - not one that has too many bigs and not enough point guards, or vice versa.

Our 2012-13 team actually had to be adjusted because of this - Brook Lopez (9th best WAR/minute in the NBA) made the team because the team was below average in rebounding without him.  Curry's (as the 8th best WAR/minute guy) % of minutes were severly cut for Lopez to be included - and make this "team" a slightly better than average rebounding team (according to the Hoops Nerd Ratings).

So, the All-WAR team is the best possible (highest possible total WAR) VIABLE team (team is not below NBA average in any important rating subset) one could put together to play an entire fictional season.  I'll be updating the All-WAR team EVERY day, for fun.

OK, enough chat - I still have to crunch the first day's WARs, pick up my kids, work out, get a nap, and get to work.  As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter or email me if you have ANY questions about anything I do.

Dan
October 30, 2013



Arizona lands #1 JUCO for 2014 - what can his JUCO stats tell us?

Kadeem Allen of Hutchinson CC verbally committed to Arizona yesterday.  I believe he is considered by most the #1 JUCO prospect for 2014.  Well, since he played a full season for a community college whose complete player stats I can actually find online - I decided to rate him as if he played D1 basketball last season.

First off, I use Sagarin for my team ratings - and he only posts D1 team ratings.  So, I had to guesstimate what Hutchinson's Sagarin rating would be.  I went to Massey's ratings - he ranks EVERY college team, to the lowliest of lows at every level.  Seeing where Hutchinson CC ranked compared to other D1 teams with Massey - I surmised a Sagarin rating of 66 for them, which would place them 264th nationally if they were a D1 team.  There's some "noise" here - it's tricky comparing a very good JUCO team that plays a very poor schedule (comparatively) to D1 teams - the 66 rating is really a best guess.  Maybe they could be as good as a 69 (I doubt it), or as low as 63 - so 66 it is.  Understand, this is still much worse than the worst P12 team last year (Utah, with a Sagarin of 76.22).


At first glance, immediately I'm struck by how many points Hutchinson CC scored.  At 81 ppg, they obviously played a fast pace - so I know immediately Allen's stats will be inflated beyond just the weak strength of schedule.

Well, after crunching the numbers, I came up with a 107 HnI (Hoops Nerd Impact ignores missed games - better indicator of player impact when available to play) - solid, but hardly "elite".  Obviously great for a CC frosh - but where would it rank him last season compared to a strong D1 program like Arizona - or in the Pac 12 in general.

With a 107 HnI, he'd rank 982nd in D1 last season, 127th amongst D1 freshmen, 61st overall in the Pac 12, and 14th amongst Pac 12 freshmen.

I was a little surprised he didn't rate higher - but he was a freshman last season, and looking deeper into the ratings there's a few signs that point to possible serious "upside".

For some context - let's group in with Arizona players last season in order of HnI:


Player Yr Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnI
Solomon Hill SR 33.0 13.4 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.6 2.2 0.575 142
Nick Johnson SO 31.4 11.5 3.6 3.2 1.9 0.6 1.9 0.549 140
Kevin Parrom SR 23.6 8.3 4.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.612 139
Mark Lyons SR 30.3 15.6 1.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 2.7 0.569 134
Brandon Ashley FR 20.5 7.5 5.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.577 126
Grant Jerrett FR 17.8 5.2 3.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.533 125
Kaleb Tarczewski FR 22.0 6.6 6.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.561 119
Kadeem Allen FR 33.5 17.4 5.3 3.8 2.5 0.9 2.7 0.523 107
Jordin Mayes JR 11.8 2.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.471 88
Angelo Chol SO 8.5 1.9 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.478 84


Considering how he performed last season in CC, one could easily surmise that as a freshman at Arizona he would have been talented enough to pretty much take all the backup SG/PG minutes from Jordin Mayes - third guy off the bench.

Now, let's break down the ratings into subsets - to see where he sits in terms of HOW he plays compared to Arizona players last season:


Player Yr Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Solomon Hill SR 89 32 23 33 34 9 15
Nick Johnson SO 76 29 21 26 21 20 29
Kevin Parrom SR 83 30 18 35 44 17 7
Mark Lyons SR 111 41 36 34 12 5 9
Brandon Ashley FR 80 48 28 5 52 -15 7
Grant Jerrett FR 58 12 9 37 41 0 23
Kaleb Tarczewski FR 64 44 20 0 58 -20 5
Kadeem Allen FR 62 29 23 10 20 10 23
Jordin Mayes JR 38 10 10 18 13 8 11
Angelo Chol SO 38 26 12 0 52 -26 9


What jumps out at me here - stylistically in terms of his ratings, he's a poor man's Nick Johnson.  His numbers scream great athlete and possible defensive stopper who's somewhat raw offensively but with upside (still scores from range at at the line).  In fact, his ratings breakdown compare favorably to frosh Nick Johnson: 62 to 54 scoring (29 to 14 2pt, 23 to 19 FT, 10 to 20 3pt), 20 to 21 rebounding, 10 to 10 ball control/passing, 23 to 10 defensive stops.  That should put a smile on any Arizona fan's face thinking about Kadeem developing as Nick has - and his "uber athlete" statistical footprint suggests he may very well do that.

Anyway, Kadeem wouldn't have been a go to guy offensively for Arizona last season - rating below the other real minutes guard/wings.  For now, his best skillset in terms of scoring is his ability to draw fouls and get to the line.  As a rebounder, he's Nick Johnson.  As a distributor, Solomon Hill.  In terms of defensive stops on the perimeter, not quite Nick Johnson - but much better than any other wing/guard.  Honestly, his peripheral ratings as a freshman (everything outside of shooting/scoring) are very impressive for a combo guard.

Compared to the entire Pac 12 last season (95 "qualified" players ranked, 24 of them freshman), here's how Kadeem Allen would have ranked last season:

Scoring/shooting 51st overall, behind Mychal Ladd and in front of Joe Burton12th among freshmen, after Kaleb Tarczewski and in front of Dominic Artis.

2pt scoring/shooting 49th overall
, behind Nick Johnson and in front of Spencer Dinwiddie10th among freshmen, behind Dakarai Tucker and in front of Kyle Anderson.

Scoring/shooting from the line 25th overall
, behind Solomon Hill and in front or Royce Woolridge
9th among freshmen, behind Rosco Allen and in front of Jordan Loveridge.

3pt scoring/shooting 58th overall, behind Cedric Martin and in front of David Wear13th among freshmen, behind Chass Bryan and in front of Andrew Andrews.

Rebounding 70th overall
, behind Dexter Kernich-Drew and before Roberto Nelson20th among freshmen, after Dakarai Tucker and before Dominic Artis.

Defensive stops 13th overall, behind Omar Oraby and before Grant JerrettOnly 4 of those guys in front of him were guards/wings though - Nick Johnson, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, and Dominic Artis.  4th among freshman - behind Artis and in front of Jerrett.

So, there you have it - a freshman athlete that, statistically, has real room to grow as a player in terms of his rating.  Similar to Nick Johnson statistically - and Nick improved 32 rating points from his freshman to sophomore years.  It'll be interesting to see how my ratings "see" Kadeem Allen after this coming sophomore season at Hutchinson CC, and whether he continues to improve as his statistical footprint would suggest.

Dan
October 29, 2013



Master List - College Transfers Playing in '13-14

Well, massive props to 
Ken Pomeroy for sending me his master list that he used to create his Projecting Top Transfers article.  The list I now have is as complete as you'll find anywhere on the interwebs - including the stats and rating (HnI) for every player their last season played.

For small handful of players who played very little their last season, I went ahead and used the season before if it was a much bigger minutes sample size.

Anyway - feel free to check out my last two college transfers write ups - on 10/15 & 10/9 - if you'd like a little of my insight on some of these guys (like Hood of Duke being WAY too overhyped for his own good).

Understand, it is completely possible that a few guys listed here actually won't play this season (or will play partial seasons) - some eligibility issues hadn't been worked out for every guy.  I don't have the time to check the exact status of every guy - but the vaste majority of these guys will be suiting up for real games sometime this coming season.

I only "ranked" guys that played over 20% of their available team minutes - BUT I included lower minute guys wherever their Hoops Nerd Impact rating landed them.  Low minute ratings are obviously much less reliable, but they still have some predictive value - especially coming from a large school to a smaller program.

Finally, the best player that I had missed the last two write ups I made on this subject was Aaric Murray (133 HnI last season for WVU) - he could easily be a Top 100 player nationally this season if he's healthy and has his head on straight - and should dominate most of his competition at Texas Southern.

OK, enough talk - here's the list in PDF form (too large to list here) - feel free to share with friends and family:

2013-14 NCAA Tranfers


Dan
October 25, 2013



College Transfer Player Rankings 2.0

Thanks to 
Ken Pomeroy and his ESPN insider article, and also the twitter discussion about it - I have a small handful of players to add to my impact transfer player list (previous "New Kids On The Block" post almost a week ago) for this coming season.  One was a glaring ommission...

J.J. Avila (CSU) - man, this guy was a STUD in 21 games on a bad Navy team in '11-12.  High usage yet good efficiency (hard to be efficient on a bad team), do EVERYTHING guy had a 147 HnI rating, which was good for 62nd nationally - and #1 on this list.  I will go out on the limb Ken Pomeroy seemed a little hesitant to step out on and say this guy (if healthy) will star for CSU, and be 1st team All Conference.  At least Ken had him as "other notable cases" - which got me to look him up in the first place.

Other names added from Pomeroy's article: #25 Perris Blackwell of Washington, #36 Richie Edwards of ASU, and not ranked (due to severe lack of minute for Ohio State in '11-12 - but his rating was VERY nice in those limited minutes) JD Weatherspoon of Toledo.  #6 Evan Smotrycz of Maryland was brought up in the twitter dicussion by Pomeroy, and was another fairly glaring ommission at that point by everyone. 


So, the most updated list, I didn't add Pomeroy's players as a column - since it's "insider" (ie "subscription") info:

Rank Yahoo NBC CBS Player New Team HnI Old Team Year
1 - - - JJ Avila CSU 147 Navy 11-12
2 5 6 - Josh Davis San Diego St 141 Tulane 12-13
3 4 3 - Michael Dixon Memphis 140 Missouri 11-12
4 3 2 - TJ McConnell Arizona 139 Duquesne 11-12
5 - - - Davon Usher Delaware 133 MVSU 12-13
6 - - - Evan Smotrycz Maryland 132 Michigan 11-12
7 12 HM - Rayvonte Rice Illinois 132 Drake 11-12
8 2 5 - Jordan Clarkson Missouri 131 Tulsa 11-12
9 - HM - Matt Stainbrook Xavier 130 W. Michigan 11-12
10 7 8 - Josh Smith Georgetown 129 UCLA 11-12
11 - - UTR David Pellom Memphis 129 George Wash. 11-12
12 11 HM - Jermaine Marshall ASU 127 Penn State 12-13
13 - - - Scott Eatherton Northeastern 125 St. Francis PA 11-12
14 HM - - Damontre Harris Florida 123 S. Carolina 11-12
15 HM - - Kelsey Barlow Ill.-Chicago 121 Purdue 11-12
16 10 7 - DeAndre Kane Iowa State 116 Marshall 12-13
17 HM - - Joseph Young** Oregon 115 Houston 12-13
18 - HM UTR Lasan Kromah UConn 115 George Wash. 12-13
19 9 10 - Tarik Black Kansas 115 Memphis 12-13
20 - - UTR Gilvydas Biruta Rhode Island 113 Rutgers 11-12
21 HM - - Nic Moore SMU 113 Illinois St. 11-12
22 6 4 - Mike Moser Oregon 112 UNLV 12-13
23 HM - - Eli Carter Florida 112 Rutgers 12-13
24 HM - - Terrance Shannon VCU 111 Florida State 12-13
25 - - - Perris Blackwell Washington 110 San Francisco 11-12
26 - - - Dylan Ennis Villanova 110 Rice 11-12
27 - - UTR Kadeem Coleby Wichita St. 110 Louisiana-Laf. 11-12
28 - - - Alfonzo McKinnie Green Bay 109 E. Illinois 11-12
29 HM - - Ryan Harrow Georgia St. 109 Kentucky 12-13
30 - - - Evan Gordon Indiana 109 ASU 12-13
31 HM - - Jason Calliste Oregon 108 Detroit 12-13
32 - - UTR Jon Ekey Illinois 108 Illinois St. 12-13
33 8 HM - Dorian Finney-Smith Florida 108 Virginia Tech 11-12
34 1 1 - Rodney Hood Duke 107 Mississippi St 11-12
35 15 HM - Antonio Barton Tennessee 106 Memphis 12-13
36 - - - Richie Edwards ASU 105 Valparaiso 11-12
37 HM HM UTR Four McGlynn Towson 105 Vermont 11-12
38 - - - Derek Jackson Kent State 104 C. Michigan 11-12
39 - - UTR Ralston Turner NC State 103 LSU 11-12
40 13 HM UTR Gerard Coleman Gonzaga 102 Providence 11-12
41 - HM UTR Alex Dragicevich Boston Coll. 101 Notre Dame 11-12
42 - - UTR Anthony Gill Virginia 100 S. Carolina 11-12
43 14 HM UTR Derrick Gordon UMass 100 WKU 11-12
44 HM - - KT Harrell Auburn 99 Virginia 10-11
45 - - UTR Allen Roberts Penn State 98 Miami-Ohio 12-13
46 - - - Garrett Jackson St. Mary's 97 USC 11-12
47 - - - Brian Sullivan Davidson 94 Miami-Ohio 11-12
48 HM - - Roscoe Smith UNLV 94 UConn 11-12
49 - - UTR Errick Peck Purdue 93 Cornell 12-13
50 HM - - Cezar Guerrero Fresno St. 93 Oklahoma St 11-12
51 - - UTR Mike Poole Iona 88 Rutgers 12-13
52 - - UTR Brandan Kearney ASU 81 Michigan St. 11-12
53 - - UTR Ty Johnson S. Carolina 79 Villanova 11-12
- HM 9 - Michael Gbinije Syracuse - Duke -
- - - UTR Jordan Sibert Dayton - Ohio State -
- - - UTR Ryan Spangler Oklahoma - Gonzaga -
- - - UTR Sterling Gibbs Seton Hall - Texas -
- - - UTR Tyler Harris Providence - NC State -
- - - - JD Weatherspoon Toledo - Ohio State -



Dan

October 15, 2013


New Kids On The Block

Or.....old kids on the new block?

I read three NCAA basketball player transfer related articles last night, and it sparked me to do a little research.  First was an article written by a guy I follow on Twitter - 
Jeff Eisenberg (The Dagger on Yahoo): Ranking the 15 transfers who will make the biggest impact next season.  Then, a few hours later, another similar article by another guy I follow on Twitter - Terrence Payne (NBC Sports): 20 Impact Transfers in College Hoops for 2013-2014.  Many similar names on both lists, which got me thinking - how did they narrow down the 3 or 4 hundred transfers to lists that had 17 players that were mentioned in both articles.

Well, I immediately wanted to know how well these players were rated in past seasons, and I also wanted to know what players these two lists missed out on.  I wasn't about to find some transfer list of hundreds of players - not even knowing for sure who was eligible this season - and looking up the past ratings of each and every guy.  I'd love to do some completely comprehensive list, but that's something I'll tackle someday in future seasons when I start doing season projections down the line.  For now, I had a couple hours before I got too tired and needed to sleep, with this transfer curiousness passing me by.  I needed a list to look up quickly.

So, I quickly found a third article written this month by - yes, you guessed it - another guy I follow on Twitter - 
Jon Rothstein (CBS Sports): College basketball preseason: 20 under-the-radar transfers. I like Jon's updates on teams and players, and this list specifically mentions "under-the-radar" guys - for the most part giving me a different group of players for my list than the other two articles.

I create a list of players from the three articles, then I perused the comments on all three articles and the Twitter posts about the articles to find a few more sleepers to add to that list.  Except for maybe Joseph Young of Oregon (still waiting on a ruling on whether he'll get to play this season), I think my list here of 54 players will all be playing this season - although a handful may not qualify to play until a little later in the season.

Now, my quickly thrown together but still kind of comprehensive transfer list borrowed from different sources - sorted by HnI in the last season the player played at least 20% of his available team minutes:

Rank Yahoo NBC CBS Player New Team HnI Old Team Year
1 5 6 - Josh Davis San Diego St 141 Tulane 12-13
2 4 3 - Michael Dixon Memphis 140 Missouri 11-12
3 3 2 - TJ McConnell Arizona 139 Duquesne 11-12
4 - - - Davon Usher Delaware 133 MVSU 12-13
5 12 HM - Rayvonte Rice Illinois 132 Drake 11-12
6 2 5 - Jordan Clarkson Missouri 131 Tulsa 11-12
7 - HM - Matt Stainbrook Xavier 130 W. Michigan 11-12
8 7 8 - Josh Smith Georgetown 129 UCLA 11-12
9 - - UTR David Pellom Memphis 129 George Wash. 11-12
10 11 HM - Jermaine Marshall ASU 127 Penn State 12-13
11 - - - Scott Eatherton Northeastern 125 St. Francis PA 11-12
12 HM - - Damontre Harris Florida 123 S. Carolina 11-12
13 HM - - Kelsey Barlow Ill.-Chicago 121 Purdue 11-12
14 10 7 - DeAndre Kane Iowa State 116 Marshall 12-13
15 HM - - Joseph Young** Oregon 115 Houston 12-13
16 - HM UTR Lasan Kromah UConn 115 George Wash. 12-13
17 9 10 - Tarik Black Kansas 115 Memphis 12-13
18 - - UTR Gilvydas Biruta Rhode Island 113 Rutgers 11-12
19 HM - - Nic Moore SMU 113 Illinois St. 11-12
20 6 4 - Mike Moser Oregon 112 UNLV 12-13
21 HM - - Eli Carter Florida 112 Rutgers 12-13
22 HM - - Terrance Shannon VCU 111 Florida State 12-13
23 - - - Dylan Ennis Villanova 110 Rice 11-12
24 - - UTR Kadeem Coleby Wichita St. 110 Louisiana-Laf. 11-12
25 - - - Alfonzo McKinnie Green Bay 109 E. Illinois 11-12
26 HM - - Ryan Harrow Georgia St. 109 Kentucky 12-13
27 - - - Evan Gordon Indiana 109 ASU 12-13
28 HM - - Jason Calliste Oregon 108 Detroit 12-13
29 - - UTR Jon Ekey Illinois 108 Illinois St. 12-13
30 8 HM - Dorian Finney-Smith Florida 108 Virginia Tech 11-12
31 1 1 - Rodney Hood Duke 107 Mississippi St 11-12
32 15 HM - Antonio Barton Tennessee 106 Memphis 12-13
33 HM HM UTR Four McGlynn Towson 105 Vermont 11-12
34 - - - Derek Jackson Kent State 104 C. Michigan 11-12
35 - - UTR Ralston Turner NC State 103 LSU 11-12
36 13 HM UTR Gerard Coleman Gonzaga 102 Providence 11-12
37 - HM UTR Alex Dragicevich Boston Coll. 101 Notre Dame 11-12
38 - - UTR Anthony Gill Virginia 100 S. Carolina 11-12
39 14 HM UTR Derrick Gordon UMass 100 WKU 11-12
40 HM - - KT Harrell Auburn 99 Virginia 10-11
41 - - UTR Allen Roberts Penn State 98 Miami-Ohio 12-13
42 - - - Garrett Jackson St. Mary's 97 USC 11-12
43 - - - Brian Sullivan Davidson 94 Miami-Ohio 11-12
44 HM - - Roscoe Smith UNLV 94 UConn 11-12
45 - - UTR Errick Peck Purdue 93 Cornell 12-13
46 HM - - Cezar Guerrero Fresno St. 93 Oklahoma St 11-12
47 - - UTR Mike Poole Iona 88 Rutgers 12-13
48 - - UTR Brandan Kearney ASU 81 Michigan St. 11-12
49 - - UTR Ty Johnson S. Carolina 79 Villanova 11-12
- HM 9 - Michael Gbinije Syracuse - Duke -
- - - UTR Jordan Sibert Dayton - Ohio State -
- - - UTR Ryan Spangler Oklahoma - Gonzaga -
- - - UTR Sterling Gibbs Seton Hall - Texas -
- - - UTR Tyler Harris Providence - NC State -


Remember, 100 is D1 average.  I use HnI (Hoops Nerd Impact) instead of HnR (Hoops Nerd Rating) because HnI ignores missed games, it rates based solely on games played - which I believe makes it a better predictor of possible future impact.

Notice I give the player rank (HM is "honorable mention", UTR are the guys listed in Rothstein's "under-the-radar" article) according to the first two player impact articles that got me started on this.  The final 5 guys listed have never played 20% of available team minutes in a college season - their sample size of stats is too small for me to want to include their rating.

Now, I'm not saying this is some exact order of player "impact" - I'm just saying this is how the players "ranked" according to their last season of HnI.  Suffice to say though, no matter the current team circumstance - if a player was rated well ahead of another in their last season, there is a good chance he'll be the better player this coming season.

If you want to see write ups on many of these guys - I suggest you click the articles I linked at the start of this post.  If you want to see the players' stats on their past teams - look at the previous team and season listed, and find the player in my past seasons' PDF files.

The thing that hits me like a ton of bricks - maybe Rodney Hood of Duke is a bit overrated?  Is it the Duke factor - Coach K wouldn't possibly take in a transfer unless he was going to be immediate pseudo All American quality?  Both articles list him #1, but his rating - while good for a frosh - doesn't portend immediate star this coming season.  I have a feeling he'll be at best the 3rd option on that team - more of a talented role guy than a All Conference/All American type.

Next, the top three rated players are studs, and should pay major dividends for their teams immediately.  TJ McConnell is my guy (I am a U of A alum) - he'll probably be the best point guard Coach Miller has ever had - and the best at Arizona in over 10 years (some guy named Jason Gardner in '03).  Josh Davis may keep SDSU & Coach Fisher very relevant on the west coast.  Dixon will probably star at Memphis - and don't forget his new teammate Pellom at #9 doing the dirty work for that team.  

I got to thank the reader comments on the articles for two sleepers: Davon Usher of Delaware and Scott Eatherton of Northeastern.  Both are significantly better than any returning players for either team, and both would be quality even if they played in a major conference.

I guess I should mention Mike Moser of Oregon - he had the very rare 30 point rating drop last season from his '11-'12 campaign (where he was a 142 HnI and almost a top 100 player nationally).  Injuries, being forced to play out of position (a lot of SF instead of PF), and having to give up a ton of touches to some freshman who ended up the #1 pick in the NBA draft made his stock (and rating) really drop.  It'll be very interesting to see what Mike Moser ends up in Eugene - the rebounding/high-energy-machine of 2 years ago, or the lost/out-of-position guy trying to find his way.

OK, I'm tired, I should have gone to sleep two hours ago.  If I missed ANY sleeper transfers - hit me up on 
Twitter or email me and let me know.

Dan
October 9, 2013



WAR!  What is it good for?!

Yes, my worst kept secret - WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is here for the NBA, and it's here to stay.  I worked out the kinks, crunched the numbers, and got the results from last season.  I do a pretty extensive explanation on my NBA Player Ratings page, as well as PDFs of the results - sorted overall or by team.  I hope you find the results as interesting as I did - I can't wait to see how about 60 years of NBA history looks (regular season and playoffs) after I actually get around to crunching the historical seasons.

Those of you that knew what was coming - thanks for your patience.

The 2012-2013 NBA Player Rankings, featuring WAR

Dan
September 28, 2013





Chugging Along at a Glacial Pace

I did live in Alaska for many years - maybe it's to be expected?

A little note to my tens, if not dozens, of readers - I am sorry about lack of writing or updating of historical ratings.  As you probably already know - this, for now, is a spare time hobby.  Unfortunately, I've had practically zero spare time.  Hopefully this will change in the future.

Anyway - UPDATE - I have a new NBA overall performance stat I created based off my Hoops Nerd Ratings that I will post soon (Sunday or Monday probably - I still need to do explanation write ups and format the file).  It was created because it will seem more familiar to the general but fairly stats savvy sports fan - but also because it will greatly help me compile multiple year and career performances, both regular season and playoffs.  My Hoops Nerd Rating (and Hoops Nerd Impact rating that ignores missed games) is a ratio that I can break down into the minutiae of statistical performance (for future player projections, predicting game results, and such) - it's not a compiling stat like points, rebounds, assists, etc are.  Hoops Nerd Rating will still be my go to rating for college hoops (for reasons I'll detail when I post my "new" stat), LARGELY because of the massive difference in team & SoS quality among the nearly 350 teams.  Hoops Nerd Rating was actually designed for college hoops - but it transitions easily to the NBA.  The lack of extreme outliers in terms of player quality in the NBA allows me to create this new stat as an extension of HnR & HnI for the NBA fan.

Now, I still plan on getting historical seasons up, but it will probably continue to be slow.  I HOPE to actually do current NBA player ratings and update EVERY morning come the 2013-2014 season.  I HOPE to have NBA players ranked every day - as well as showing their change in ratings over the last day, week, & month.  This will be a crazy tricky endeavor for me - but I do want the challenge of learning to automate my process well enough to where I can still sleep more than 4 hours every day while also still updating rankings daily.  I also hope to have enough followers to make it very worthwhile for me to do so.  That's a lot of hoping, I know.  I think we'll make it work.

As for college ratings - I expect I'll be updating once a week on the same day (not sure what day) - starting around when conference games start.  There's too much "noise" in the SoS's in college until about 10 games in - which makes player rating results too "noisy" as well.  Come conference seasons - things smooth out a bit and ratings make more sense.

Now, as for my real job - part of me thinks I may decide to "retire" come the end of February or March.  I love this stuff I do here - I want to devote full time to it, and I NEED to start writing.  I have stories/analysis/opinions and such brew up within me constantly, yet I practically never get to sit down and get it written.  Well, the end of February into the start of March is the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (which I plan on attending), my kids spring break in March, the end of March is the Pac 12 basketball tourney in Vegas (which I also plan on attending), and April is the NCAA tourney soon followed by the NBA playoffs.  It has been almost impossible to take leave from work (we're always short) - and things probably won't be any different on that front come February.  If I want to partake in all those things and possibly write about them - I may have to just MAKE it happen.  We'll see - I've got 5 months to see how things play out.  As for gigs in sports - the small interest (and small $$offers) I've gotten from other sites have wanted me to write solely for them.  If I do get a big enough offer to write for another site (ie, big enough offer to allow me "retire" from my 9 to 5) - I will MAKE SURE I will be able to get all the worthwhile work I have planned out to readers, it just maybe wouldn't be here.  The only way I'd leave my peeps hanging is if I somehow started working for an NBA team (NBA teams that have hired acquaintances of mine have had them stop publishing any basketball related analytics) - I don't see that happening.  Even though I'm in DFW - let's just say Mark Cuban hasn't been beating down my door.  I'd still let people know what was going on nonetheless.

Anyway - I did join Twitter about two months ago, and I will always tweet every update to this site.  I don't have many followers yet - although a quick glance of them shows I do have a national sports journalist seen frequently often on ESPN's Outside the Lines as well as an admin for a NBA team following me - don't ask me how they found me, I'm so new to the Twitter phenomenon.  Please follow me if you want the updates and the occasional 140 character hot sports (or even non sports) opinion from me.  Or maybe if you just want to say "hi" - or tell me I suck.  Whatevs.  I don't have the time to tweet a ton, but I actually can occasionally log in from work when it's a little slow (don't tell my bosses) - something I unfortunately can't do with this site.  So, my twitter account has been more active than this site.

Thanks to everyone following me here and on twitter - stick with us, and maybe you can someday say you were a Hoops Nerd (or OHN - Original Hoops Nerd) before being a Hoops Nerd became "cool".

Dan
September 27, 2013




Finally! The Final 2013 NBA Regular Season Ratings & Rankings

Better late than never I guess.  Top three are expected - LeBron, Kevin, & Chris.  Some fairly tightly bunched players after that.

Here's the link to the NBA player ratings page - I offer a ton of ways to look at player rankings, depending on what you are looking for.  I explain it all, but be warned - if you look at the links beyond the normal initial Hoops Nerd Rating links, expect a little tired head until you get a grasp on what all the columns mean.

I'll be including the final 2013 Playoff Player ratings soon on that page.  Stay tuned.

Dan
August 5, 2013




Hoops Nerd gets a little "shout out"

Well, I guess I personally got the shout out for a little tweet I sent about one thing I perceive as an irony of the ARod suspension - but close enough, love for Dan Dickey is obviously love for Hoops Nerd (transitive theory - look it up): 

On Alex Rodriguez & "The Best Interests of the Game"

My quote is in the sixth paragraph.

Dave Zirin is the writer - a frequent guest on Outside the Lines on ESPN (actually, he appears almost anywhere a debate pops up about a sports issue that is unique enough to be considered a societal issue) - and a guy whose take is always interesting to me.  I'm pretty honored he quoted a little tweet of mine in this last article - I'm narcissistic enough to think this article of his may be the best one ever written about ARod mainly because of the brilliance of that quote.  Is that normal?  Am I wrong?

Seriously though, thanks Dave for seeing the brilliance behind my 140 characters, and making it part of your much larger than 140 character article.  Keep up the great work, and that eagle eye for twitter genius.

Dan
August 4, 2013




2009-2010 NCAA Player Ratings & Rankings

Just added to the past player ratings page.  Enjoy.

Dan
July 27, 2013
 


Often in my thoughts.....

I was actually attempting to update my very neglected facebook Hoops Nerd page, when I decided I needed to bring something over here that I wrote over two years ago.

Pretty much every time I do anything on facebook, memories creep up on me about two close friends from years ago during my time in Alaska.  They didn't know each other really, they were from my two different worlds at the time (I guess my "jock" world and my "nerd" world) - but they both passed away over two years ago within three days of each other.  I rarely logged into facebook back then (I'm still not much of a fixture there) - but I just happened to log in the day Doc died, and had been logging in regularly for the next three days often talking about Doc when Bill died.

So, facebook almost always brings back memories of them in the back of my mind every time I go there - and it did again tonight.  There's nothing wrong with that - they are both inspirations to me still, it's unfortunate I never got to really tell them while they were still here with us.  What I wrote was my way of attempting to lighten my heavy heart - and to really let them and others know how I felt.

Some of you may ask why I would bring this up here - well, here's how I ended my letter to Bill two days after his death:

"Thank you for having faith in me and my work. I promise, I will try to do what you always strove for - to live and enjoy life, and to treat others with loving kindness. I will try to use what I learned those many years ago with your help - and maybe I'll someday make a living doing what I love to do - what you all encouraged of me back then. If I ever do somehow make a career out of the crazy stat stuff that rattles around in my brain, I will thank you once again Bill." 

I can't disconnect all the important things in my life from each other - they all play a part in who I am and what I do.  So, my tributes to my two close friends I lost over two years ago will come over here to Hoops Nerd with me.

Randy "Doc" Deeter
Wil "Bill" Curry


Dan
July 14, 2013


Met the great Tim Cowlishaw...

And got a pic to prove it.

That's Tim, myself, my 5 year old Luke, and my 8 year old Ryan.  It was a book signing in Plano for his newest book: Drunk on Sports.

He's a regular panelist on
ESPN's Around the Horn and a columnist for the Dallas Morning News for like, I dunno, what seems like a hundred years.  OK, I just looked it up - he's written for them for over 23 years.

Thanks Tim for signing my copies and posing for the pic!  My boys were happy to see that guy they've seen on TV.  I'll get to reading later tonight.....

Dan
July 13, 2013



Finally, the first of MANY historical season ratings updates!

First, no - the NBA player ratings have not been updated since the All Star break - I expect to rectify this within a week or so, with the final 2013 NBA player ratings (regular season and playoffs).  I am sorry about that - but I have some college stuff I really want to finish before I change focus.  The NBA has been on the back burner since this site's inception - but during the next month or so expect a TON of NBA player ratings from past seasons to get posted on the past player ratings page.

And yes, I said 
past player ratings page.  I cleaned up some stuff here a little - took out some misleading links - and created the past seasons rating page to get this historical stuff up and running.  For the moment, we are two historical NCAA seasons deep (making it three seasons total when you consider this last season) on the historical page, with more to come over the next few months.  You want to see the complete 2012 player rankings (with a Kentucky Wildcat a strong #1)? Or the 2011 rankings (with a Husky at the top)? Well, you now can.  I also created a link at the top of this homepage for quick access.

A big thanks to those of you that have been sticking with me while I (very) slowly tweak/fix/update this site - I hope to repay you with a wealth of interesting analytics over the next few months - as always time permitting.  Please, feel free to email me or hit me up (follow me) on Twitter (I broke down and just joined after so many suggested I should) - I am always open to discussion, ideas, or six figure job offers - you know, whatever.

Dan
July 12, 2013


Take a deep breath - a Hoops Nerd Draft breakdown

We are a few months away from the super crazy Hoops Nerd college to pro player projections - but for now we can at least get a little more detailed into what maybe the ratings tell us - the good and the bad.  This will probably get a little lengthy.

The True Low Post Guys:

The real big guys, and their rating broken down: Scoring (Broken down further by 2pt, FT, & 3pt), Rebounding, Ball Handling (assists & TOs), and Defense:

Pk

Player

Team

Yr

Age

Height

SR

Rank

HnI

2pt

FT

3pt

Sco

Reb

BH

Df

34

Mike Muscala

Bucknell

SR

21

6'11.5

9'00

1

194

78

47

1

126

68

10

24

13

Kelly Olynyk

Gonzaga

JR

22

7'00

9'00

4

182

113

41

4

158

53

-7

16

4

Cody Zeller

Indiana

SO

20

7'00.25

8'10

10

173

77

50

-1

127

55

-11

22

18

Mason Plumlee

Duke

SR

23

7'00.5

9'00

11

171

81

36

0

116

57

-9

20

17

Gorgui Dieng

Louisville

JR

23

6'10.75

9'03.5

14

168

50

18

0

69

66

5

39

30

Jeff Withey

Kansas

SR

23

7'00.5

9'02.5

16

168

68

31

1

100

52

-12

44

6

Nerlens Noel

Kentucky

FR

19

6'11.75

9'02

26

160

53

13

0

66

55

-2

62

41

Colton Iverson

Colorado St.

SR

23

7'00

9'02

29

158

82

29

0

111

70

-7

8

44

Alex Oriakhi

Missouri

SR

23

6'09.5

9'00

69

150

71

31

0

102

64

-14

20

5

Alex Len

Maryland

SO

20

7'01

105

144

68

26

-1

93

61

-8

19

12

Steven Adams

Pittsburgh

FR

19

7'00

9'01.5

144

139

58

6

0

64

60

-7

34



Yes, that is Mike Muscala #1 - who is incredibly underrated.  One of the best scorers & rebounders - and the best passer - of the group.  Len and Adams are younger than everyone not named Nerlens and Cody, that has to be considered - but they're still reaches though.  Zeller's comparatively stubby arms maybe kept him from being a #1.

Immediate
red flags: lack of points from the line and overall scoring ability of Noel, Adams, and Dieng (Dieng maybe a BIG red flag at age 23); maybe smallish red flags for Oriakhi and Withey's lack of handles; maybe smallish red flags for Withey, Olynyk, Zeller, Noel, & Plumlee's rebounding for a true post; BIG red flag for Iverson's very poor defensive rating (screams lack of NBA athleticism) and a smaller one for Olynyk's defense (more focused on offense?).

Scoring breakdowns (by rating with per 40 minute stats):

Pk

Player

Pts/40

TS%

Sco

2pt

2pta

2pt%

Rat

FT

FTA

FT%

Rat

3pt

3pta

3pt%

Rat

13

Kelly Olynyk

27.0

0.669

158

9.8

14.8

0.66

113

6.2

8.0

0.78

41

0.4

1.4

0.30

4

4

Cody Zeller

22.4

0.614

127

7.5

13.2

0.57

77

7.4

9.7

0.76

50

-

0.1

0.00

-1

34

Mike Muscala

23.6

0.569

126

8.3

15.9

0.52

78

6.6

8.4

0.79

47

0.1

0.6

0.25

1

18

Mason Plumlee

19.7

0.620

116

7.1

11.8

0.60

81

5.5

8.1

0.68

36

-

-

-

0

41

Colton Iverson

19.2

0.594

111

7.1

11.9

0.60

82

5.1

8.6

0.59

29

-

-

-

0

44

Alex Oriakhi

17.4

0.666

102

6.3

9.8

0.64

71

4.8

6.5

0.75

31

-

-

-

0

30

Jeff Withey

17.8

0.614

100

6.4

11.1

0.58

68

4.8

6.7

0.71

31

0.0

0.0

1.00

1

5

Alex Len

18.0

0.564

93

6.9

12.6

0.54

68

4.2

6.1

0.69

26

0.0

0.3

0.13

-1

17

Gorgui Dieng

12.6

0.557

69

4.9

9.1

0.53

50

2.8

4.4

0.65

18

-

-

-

0

6

Nerlens Noel

13.1

0.576

66

5.1

8.7

0.59

53

2.9

5.4

0.53

13

-

-

-

0

12

Steven Adams

12.3

0.550

64

5.3

9.3

0.57

58

1.7

3.7

0.44

6

-

-

-

0


Olynyk is about as versatile high usage AND efficient scorer you'll find in the post in any season.  I could see him becoming a better NBA three point shooter than he was in college - he won't be able to dominate better in the paint like he did in college.

Noel can't shoot, and Adams really can't shoot.  The bottom three will be poor in terms of scoring for quite a while.

The ONLY possible red flag of my man crush Muscala in terms of scoring would be his two point efficiency - while above average, it's not great - and the lowest % of this group.

Zeller gets to the line better than anyone in this group.

Rebounding breakdowns:

Pk

Player

Team

Yr

Age

Height

SR

Rb/40

Rat

Or/40

Rat

Dr/40

Rat

41

Colton Iverson

Colorado St.

SR

23

7'00

9'02

13.2

70

4.5

34

8.7

36

34

Mike Muscala

Bucknell

SR

21

6'11.5

9'00

14.0

68

3.6

26

10.4

42

17

Gorgui Dieng

Louisville

JR

23

6'10.75

9'03.5

12.1

66

4.4

34

7.7

33

44

Alex Oriakhi

Missouri

SR

23

6'09.5

9'00

13.0

64

4.8

33

8.2

31

5

Alex Len

Maryland

SO